Sabah’s location relative to the Philippines and Malaysia. Image Source: Rappler

The present backdrop, fresh South China Sea flare-ups, Malaysia–Philippines legal friction, and Subic’s U.S. tilt, is the timing. That’s the narrative they’re poised to ride.

The idea that the Sulu heirs could “lease Sabah”—even to China—didn’t come from rumor mills. It came from their own counsel. In an 11 November 2024 interview, lawyer Paul Cohen told the New Straits Times his clients were “now free to lease Sabah to other nations, including China and the Philippines.” That line set the tone for everything that followed.

“Lawyer Paul Cohen told the New Straits Times his clients were “now free to lease Sabah to other nations, including China and the Philippines.””

Malaysia’s response, a day later, was deliberately muscular “Go ahead and try ‘leasing’ Sabah… watch what happens.” It made global copy, with media outlets noting Azalina Othman Said’s “baseless” verdict on the heirs’ lease talk and a warning of legal action if they ever attempted it.

The Manila Huddle

It is expected that on 9 December 2025, the Paris Court of Appeal is scheduled to hand down its decision on Malaysia’s bid to annul the US$14.9bn “final award.” The heirs have every reason to expect a bad day in court since France’s top court has already torpedoed key planks of their case, so the incentives to pivot from courtroom to communications battlespace are an option for the heirs team.

As stated by KnowSulu, against that probable backdrop, on July 2025, after the Paris hearing, Paul Cohen and Elisabeth Mason appeared in Manila for a quiet meet-up with strategist Charles Webb and Richard Jacobson head of security operations linked to Subic Bay. You do not need cloak-and-dagger theories to see what a gathering like that could be for: stress-test narratives, shop for political allies, and prepare a fresh round of pressure tactics in the Philippines.

“Paul Cohen and Elisabeth Mason appeared in Manila for a quiet meet-up with strategist Charles Webb and Richard Jacobson head of security operations linked to Subic Bay.”

Lease Rhetoric as Pressure

This is where the “lease Sabah to China” soundbite re-enters the frame, not as a legal plan, but as message discipline. If you are bracing for a legal loss, you float a geopolitical shocker to keep oxygen in the story and coax third-party backing. Intelligence Online journalist Michael Sweeney is not selling the lease idea, but he flagged something else: a ramp-up in influence/PR operations ahead of court milestones. Read that alongside Cohen’s 2024 lease rhetoric and the Manila meet, and it is hard not to see where this could go next.

“If you are bracing for a legal loss, you float a geopolitical shocker to keep oxygen in the story and coax third-party backing”

This is a pre-planted device, not a legal pathway. Cohen’s 2024 line set the intent in plain sight: when the temperature rises, activate the China angle to keep oxygen in the story and recruit allies. They don’t need to restate it; the context does the amplification. The message discipline is simple: one provocative quote and the right moment equals leverage.

The China connection

Drop the L-word (lease) and the C-word (China) into today’s South China Sea feed and you will trend by lunchtime. The Philippines–China confrontation flared again on 12 Oct 2025 near Thitu/Sandy Cay, with ramming and water-cannon incidents and a U.S. condemnation the next day. In this climate, evoking China and Sabah is gasoline on dry brush, exactly the sort of provocation that travels.

“That is the ambient noise the heirs’ camp are looking to exploit: loud regional friction, ready-made headlines.”

And there is longer-burn context when your look into when Malaysia formally protested new Philippine maritime laws in November 2024 that it said touched Sabah and encroached on its boundaries, legislative moves that also angered Beijing. That is the ambient noise the heirs’ camp are looking to exploit: loud regional friction, ready-made headlines. The intention was clear then; the timing is right now.

Subic Tilt: Cerberus and the Optics Game

On October 13, 2025, Cerberus Capital Management, an American global investment firm, moved to operate Subic Bay International Airport, extending a U.S.-leaning footprint. That real-world tilt away from Beijing makes a “lease Sabah to China” frame even more potent as provocation, a PR lever meant to needle Manila and Washington precisely because momentum on the ground cuts the other way.

Collateral Damage

At bottom, the heirs are running a pressure play, trying to bring heavy players into the game, keeping the narrative boiling and their leverage alive even if 9 December 2025 goes south. In that calculus, ordinary Tausūg and Sabahans are reduced to props: brandished as symbols, spent as talking points, and left no closer to real solutions than they were yesterday.

The courtroom theater, the Manila optics, the headline-friendly tease of a “lease to China”, none of it feeds sulu families, settles land questions, or cools tensions at sea. It is choreography dressed as courage: noisy, cynical, and aimed less at justice than at staying in the spotlight no matter what.

They don’t need to say it again. Cohen said enough in 2024 to make the intention unmistakable. All that was missing was timing—and this context delivers it. That’s the narrative.

REFERENCES

New Straits Times. (2024, November 11). ‘Heirs’ now free to lease Sabah to China, Philippines, says lawyer. New Straits Times. https://www.nst.com.my

New Straits Times. (2024, November 12). Azalina to Sulu ‘heirs’: Go ahead and try ‘leasing’ Sabah to other countries, watch what happens. New Straits Times. https://www.nst.com.my

Malay Mail. (2024, November 13). ‘Just try, we will fight it,’ Azalina says after lawyer for Sulu sultanate heirs hints at leasing Sabah to China, the Philippines. Malay Mail. https://www.malaymail.com

Reuters. (2024, November 13). Malaysia challenges late sultan’s heirs to try to lease part of the country. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com

Bernama. (2025, July 19). Paris Court to rule on Sulu claim annulment on Dec 9. Bernama. https://www.bernama.com

KnowSulu.ph. (2025, July 25). Cohen, Mason, and the quiet arrival of Charles Webb: A power trio lands in Manila. KnowSulu. https://knowsulu.ph

Sweeney, M. (2025, October 10). Heirs of Sulu v Malaysia: Influence and intel campaigns intensify ahead of critical court verdicts. Intelligence Online. https://www.intelligenceonline.com

Associated Press. (2024, November 15). Malaysia protests new Philippine maritime laws that it says infringe on its territory. AP News. https://apnews.com

BusinessWorld Online. (2025, October 13). US-based Cerberus submitted unsolicited proposal for Subic Bay airport — SBMA. BusinessWorld Online. https://www.bworldonline.com